Wednesday, February 6, 2008

USA vs. Mexico: There Will Be Blood


Oguchi Onyewu eats Mexicans for breakfast.

--The Rivalry--

Tonight at 9 p.m. on ESPN2, we will witness the latest chapter in our nation's biggest, most bitter international sporting rivalry, USA vs. Mexico. On the world stage, Mexico is thought of as North and Central America's biggest soccer power, but the actual results show otherwise. The US has lost to Mexico just twice since 2000, both times by a single goal in Mexico City. Otherwise, the US has dominated - Mexico has scored just
one goal in the 10 games in the US and on neutral soil since 2000, drawing once and losing nine times, including in the Round of 16 in the 2002 World Cup in Korea, and in the Gold Cup final last June. The US has held the region's c
hampionship trophy since 2005. This does not please the fans of El Tri. The battles are always heated, and this one will be even more so thanks to last summer's Superliga. The inaugural tournament between Mexican and American club teams featured fights in almost every game. Expect physicality and cards.

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--The Debutantes--
Tonight's clash in Houston will provide a fascinating look at the next generation of this bitter rivalry. There is a lot of buzz surrounding this match, largely due to the new blood that will be on display. The future of the USMNT lies on the shoulders of three talented young players who have begun to break out in their respective professional leagues: Michael Bradley, who has set the all-time single season scoring record for an American in top flight European soccer with 16 goals so far this season for Heerenveen; Freddy Adu, who is finally living up to the hype as Benfica's 18 year old super-sub with 5 goals so far this season; and Jozy Altidore, who has 13 goals thus far in his MLS career, also at the age of 18, and is simply the most talented American striker ever (oh, and did I mention he's on the cover of FIFA '08? Yeah. At 18). These three are all set to make their debuts in the USA-Mexico rivalry tonight.

On the Mexico side, a couple of their young starlets will enter the fray for the first time as well. Giovani Dos Santos of Barcelona and Carlos Vela of Osasuna are considered two of the most talented young players in the world. Two others, Nery Castillo and Andres Guardado, will miss this match with injury and have faced the US before, but these seven young players all together will form the core of the rivalry for the next 10-12 years.

Bradley, Adu, Altidore

--The Lineup--
So who can we expect to see play for the US tonight? One given is that Everton netminder Tim Howard will be between the posts for the US. His very talented and capable backup Brad Guzan (Chivas USA), whose transfer to Aston Villa was just held up by the UK's preposterous work permit rules, will be standing ready. You can also be pretty sure that Carlos Bocanegra (Fulham) and Oguchi Onyewu (Standard Liege) will be continuing their partnership as the first choice US center half pairing. The pair's play, however, has been up and down over the past year and a half, however. Bocanegra lost and then regained his starting spot with the sinking ship that is Fulham, and while Onyewu remains one of the best defenders in Belgium, it's still just Belgium and his US form has been poor since the phantom penalty called against him in the 2006 World Cup against Ghana. He seems to be afraid to be physical now, with refs calling the 6'4" Gooch for fouls every time he breathes on an opponent. He is known for his physicality against Mexico, however, and one can only hope that he will regain his confidence tonight. Eddie Robinson (Houston), the first goalscorer against Sweden last month, may get some time.

Nothing is clear at fullback. Heath Pearce (Hansa Rostock) has had an up and down season. Ramiro Corrales (Brann) is having a career year in Norway, but while his defending is solid he offers little going forward. Look for Corrales to get the start to see if he can build on his performance in last month's win over Sweden, but don't be surprised to see Pearce get at least significant minutes. On the right side, Drew Moor is the only natural right back who was called in, but he isn't very good. That he won't have to deal with the dangerous Guardado should help, but this superfan/amateur analyst would still rather see Michael Parkhurst (New England) get the call. Parkhurst is a talented defender with good positional and tackling instincts. His future with the national team is much brighter than Moors. He is, however, limited going forward, as he's a natural centerback.
The midfield is where the US strength lies. Bradley is a lock to start in the center. However, his traditional role with the US has been more defensive, whereas his stellar play this season has been as a two way midfielder, so look for Coach Bradley (yes, his dad) to give him the freedom to roam forward and get into those dangerous positions from which his scoring touch has proved so adept. Another young rising star for the US is defensive midfielder Maurice Edu (Toronto). He has looked composed beyond his experience level with the MNT in his caps thus far, and he could be an intimidating force in the middle against Mexico, so I'd look for him to start in the middle next to Bradley. Ricardo Clark (Houston) has played OK for the MNT, but he's clearly lower in the pecking order than Bradley and Edu. If the team goes with two central mids, Clark is out. Meanwhile, Adu will most likely not start, but get some time in the second half to show his stuff.

With DaMarcus Beasley (Rangers) injured, Bobby Convey (Reading) is a lock to start at left wing. It will be interesting to see what Bradley does on the right side. The US has no natural right wing. Clint Dempsey (Fulham) has traditionally played there for the national team, but he's done well up top in England. Meanwhile, Landon Donovan (Los Angeles) is ever positionless. As a forward, he sometimes doesn't involve himself in the play enough. As a center mid, he's too wary of moving around and stepping on teammates' toes. As a wing mid, he's not a particularly good crosser. But on the wing he does get the space to run at people, and he's more involved in the play. Pat Noonan (New England) offers the team almost nothing at wing mid or forward. I'd look for Donovan to get the start at right wing.

Up top, we will almost certainly see Dempsey. The big question is whether Altidore will start. He is almost certain to see playing time.

--The Tactics--
The final spot in the starting XI is likely to go to Clark as a second defensive midfielder. This would leave Dempsey alone up top:

-------------Dempsey-------------
-Convey------Bradley-----Donovan-
-----------Edu----Clark----------
Pearce-Bocanegra--Onyewu----Moor-
--------------Howard-------------


Tactically, this is not ideal. The US has trouble creating offense. Playing a four man back line with a two defensive midfielders is asking for trouble on offense. It would call on Bradley to do most of the creating, but even worse calls for too much of a burden on Dempsey. He is not a natural target forward and asking him to play alone up top wastes his skill in going at people. Nevertheless, this is what we are likely to see to start, just because Bradley may not be comfortable starting Altidore. It's not altogether bad, as it may stabilize the game by making it very difficult for Mexico to score. If we see this starting XI, Altidore is likely to be subbed in in the second half. If he replaces Clark, we could see this:


--------Altidore-----------------
------------------Dempsey--------
-Convey------Bradley-----Donovan-
---------------Edu---------------
Pearce-Bocanegra--Onyewu----Moor-
--------------Howard-------------

This opens up the offense considerably. With Altidore receiving the ball up top, Convey, Bradley, and Dempsey are all free to run off of him. Expect Altidore to occasionally drift out left to receive the ball facing the goal, which is his favorite position. From here, he can take on defenders one on one, shoot from distance, or combine with Bradley or Dempsey. Watching Rafa Marquez (Barcelona) try to deal with Altidore will be fascinating. He will likely be the focus of the Mexican defense, which should open up opportunities for Bradley, Dempsey, and Donovan, and perhaps even Edu, who may get some cracks from 25 yards out if the Mexican defense collapses inside. Altidore is the key for the US offense going forward. He is the first world-class striker prospect this country has ever produced.

Adu will also come in in the second half. If he replaces Dempsey, then watch out. Altidore and Adu have uncannily good chemistry, and they have been playing with Bradley in the US youth teams for years. Their attacking triangle is the future for the US, and getting to see if operate tonight would be a treat.

--The Result--
Mexico coach Hugo Sanchez has brought a strong squad to Houston. In addition to Dos Santos, Vela, and Marquez, Carlos Salcido (PSV Eindhoven) and Pavel Pardo (Stuttgart) are international veterans who will help Mexico stamp their identity on the game. The two teams will battle in the midfield, but both teams are strong offensively and defensively in the center of the pitch. Expect Vela and Dos Santos to give some trouble to the relatively slower Bocanegra and Onyewu for Mexico. For the US, wing play will be paramount. Convey and Donovan will have to use their speed to frustrate the Mexican wingers and fullbacks. I predict that the quick Mexican attackers will sneak in the first goal, with the US responding on a counterattack. In the second half, I expect that the young Americans will take over and have the better of the play, creating what I am sure will be an exciting winning goal. Most of all, I expect all of the young stars to come out of their first USA-Mexico match with invaluable experience - and a newfound hatred for each other.

Prediction: USA 2, Mexico 1

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