Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Just say no

We're past the halfway point of the season and the final third is well underway. We're 6 1/2 out of the division lead but in second place with a number of games against the Phillies left on the slate. We're only 3 1/2 back in the Wild Card. The Braves have championship caliber pitching. In fact, staff "ace" Derek Lowe is probably the worst of the bunch. Our offense is starting to come around now that Frenchy is gone, Anderson is finally healthy and hitting, McClouth has replaced Schafer and Prado has emerged to provide the production everyone thought Kelly Johnson was capable of providing. It certainly seems like a deal similar to the deal for Teixeira would be the prudent move right now. Add that big bat to complete the lineup and finally pair a first-class offense with our first class pitching and, bam! Playoffs!

Luckily, it looks like Frank Wren and Bobby Cox are content with the team at hand. Yes, it is possible that a big bat could put the Braves over the top, but the playoffs would still seem unlikely. The Phillies have a big lead and there are a lot of teams to leapfrog for the Wild Card. Meanwhile, the Braves don't want to disrupt a suddenly formidible lineup by moving too many pieces in a trade. McClouth and Escobar are the most attractive pieces to other teams, but there's no way McClouth leaves with the contract he has. And, despite the fact that Escobar has some attitude problems, there aren't many young, cheap shortstops out there who can do all the things Escobar can do. The market is small for line-drive hitting first basemen like Kotchman and the Braves would have to get a first baseman in return. The rumor mill had Vazquez as a possible trading piece with Tim Hudson on the way, but the Braves have no clue how Hudson will fare after his surgery and Vazquez value will likely still be high at the end of the season when the Braves have a chance to see if it's worth picking up Hudson's option for the following season. Then they could choose to move either Hudson or Vazquez to fill other positions or even possibly keep them both, depending on how the rest of the rotation shakes out.

Also, the list of big bats available is headlined by Holiday who will be a Boras represented free agent after next year and oh so clearly benefited from the Coors Field Factor as his numbers in an A's uniform prove. Holiday is not a difference maker. In fact, I'd take Prado over Holiday any day of the week.

Why not just sit tight? Instead of paying an inflated price for a name-brand, why not just sit tight and hope the next wave of Baby Braves prove to have a few more successes than their predecessors. Frenchy, McCann, LaRoche, and Johnson were supposed to be cornerstones. Instead, only McCann has met expectations. Tommy Hanson has been just as advertised so far, but Freddy Freeman and Jason Heyward are only a year or two away. A Yankees scout said he would trade anyone in his organization to land the long-ball hitting Heyward. While that's probably an exaggeration, it shows how much talent Heyward has. To put things in perspective, Heyward is more highly regarded than Francoeur in 2005 by far. And Freeman is not too far behind. And don't forget about Schafer, who was probably rushed to the majors too soon and suffered a setback with his wrist after being demoted. An outfield with McClouth, Schafer, and Heyward with Freeman at first base may not be too far around the corner. As long as those players live up to their potential, the big bats the Braves want will be arriving soon enough . . . from within the organization.

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