Just say no

We're past the halfway point of the season and the final third is well underway. We're 6 1/2 out of the division lead but in second place with a number of games against the Phillies left on the slate. We're only 3 1/2 back in the Wild Card. The Braves have championship caliber pitching. In fact, staff "ace" Derek Lowe is probably the worst of the bunch. Our offense is starting to come around now that Frenchy is gone, Anderson is finally healthy and hitting, McClouth has replaced Schafer and Prado has emerged to provide the production everyone thought Kelly Johnson was capable of providing. It certainly seems like a deal similar to the deal for Teixeira would be the prudent move right now. Add that big bat to complete the lineup and finally pair a first-class offense with our first class pitching and, bam! Playoffs!

Luckily, it looks like Frank Wren and Bobby Cox are content with the team at hand. Yes, it is possible that a big bat could put the Braves over the top, but the playoffs would still seem unlikely. The Phillies have a big lead and there are a lot of teams to leapfrog for the Wild Card. Meanwhile, the Braves don't want to disrupt a suddenly formidible lineup by moving too many pieces in a trade. McClouth and Escobar are the most attractive pieces to other teams, but there's no way McClouth leaves with the contract he has. And, despite the fact that Escobar has some attitude problems, there aren't many young, cheap shortstops out there who can do all the things Escobar can do. The market is small for line-drive hitting first basemen like Kotchman and the Braves would have to get a first baseman in return. The rumor mill had Vazquez as a possible trading piece with Tim Hudson on the way, but the Braves have no clue how Hudson will fare after his surgery and Vazquez value will likely still be high at the end of the season when the Braves have a chance to see if it's worth picking up Hudson's option for the following season. Then they could choose to move either Hudson or Vazquez to fill other positions or even possibly keep them both, depending on how the rest of the rotation shakes out.

Also, the list of big bats available is headlined by Holiday who will be a Boras represented free agent after next year and oh so clearly benefited from the Coors Field Factor as his numbers in an A's uniform prove. Holiday is not a difference maker. In fact, I'd take Prado over Holiday any day of the week.

Why not just sit tight? Instead of paying an inflated price for a name-brand, why not just sit tight and hope the next wave of Baby Braves prove to have a few more successes than their predecessors. Frenchy, McCann, LaRoche, and Johnson were supposed to be cornerstones. Instead, only McCann has met expectations. Tommy Hanson has been just as advertised so far, but Freddy Freeman and Jason Heyward are only a year or two away. A Yankees scout said he would trade anyone in his organization to land the long-ball hitting Heyward. While that's probably an exaggeration, it shows how much talent Heyward has. To put things in perspective, Heyward is more highly regarded than Francoeur in 2005 by far. And Freeman is not too far behind. And don't forget about Schafer, who was probably rushed to the majors too soon and suffered a setback with his wrist after being demoted. An outfield with McClouth, Schafer, and Heyward with Freeman at first base may not be too far around the corner. As long as those players live up to their potential, the big bats the Braves want will be arriving soon enough . . . from within the organization.

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The 3,000

Respect is due.

3,000 K's baby!

We Want a Pitcher, Not a Belly Itcher

If there is one thing that has been difficult to get used to for all Braves fans, it's been the lack of quality starting pitching in Atlanta over the past few seasons. Some of the problems have been due to bad luck (Hampton's seemingly endless string of injuries). Some have been due to disappointing prospects (Kyle Davies). But most have been due to Atlanta's relatively frugal ownership. The Braves, to this day, have one of the healthiest farm systems in all of baseball . . . even after trading away four supposedly surefire prospects for Mark Teixeira. There once was a time when that healthy farm system would have made the Braves a frontrunner in the Johan Santana sweepstakes. A Braves package that included two top pitching prospects plus some other solid position players (perhaps Lillibridge and Brandon Jones?) plus perhaps a little more filler would have looked much better than anything the Twins were offered by the Mets, Yankees, or Red Sox. Such a trade would have given the Braves a rotation of Smoltz, Hudson, Hampton, Glavine, and Santana -- which would be quite the formidable group and about as close as the Braves could come to the Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux group of the '90's. But alas, the Ted Turner ownership days are long gone and the Braves have to fill the rotation using entirely different methods . . .

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The Braves offense has a lot of potential coupled with a lot of risk. The pitching staff is even more extreme. The Braves have a huge disparity in age between the veteran starters and the young guns. Smoltz is still one of the best pitchers in the game and, as one of the greatest post season starters of all time, could lead the way to playoff success. Glavine is no longer a frontline starter, but he and Smoltz have both been in the top five for quality starts the past two years. Tim Hudson is not a star, but is a solid #2 and as long as he keeps his sinker low, is one of the best groundball pitchers in the game. Hampton, before his series of injuries, was extremely effective with the Braves and could be one of the best #4 starters in baseball. The thing is, all these guys are getting up there in age. The time to win with this group is now. While Hudson still likely has a number of quality years remaining, Smoltz and Glavine are both over 40. For Hampton, this is a make or break year. It's the last year of his megacontract that he signed with Colorado seven years ago. If he pitches poorly or is injured again, his career could be finished. The time is now for this group of starters.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Braves have a crop of youngsters that have the potential to be really, really good. JoJo Reyes and Jair Jurrjens certainly have the stuff to succeed as frontliners in the big leagues. A second tier of prospects, including Chris Resop and Jeff Bennett among others, could also provide quality depth at the 4 and 5 spots. The question is, are these guys ready for the show right now?

The fact is, it is entirely unrealistic to think that the four veterans will all stay healthy for the whole season. Simultaneously, it is unrealistic to think that Reyes and Jurrjens will become the Cy Young candidates some scouts believe they can become soon enough to offset the loss of Smoltz, Glavine, or Hampton to injury. And that is why the success of the Braves in '08 may fall on the sore left shoulder of Chuck James.

Chuck James followed up a successful rookie campaign with a disappointing sophomore effort. His struggles in '07 were largely due to his inability to keep the ball in the park as he gave up 32 HR's in only 160 innings. This number combined with a .316 average against leadoff batters meant that James allowed far too many HR's with runners on. While Chuck James does not have killer stuff like Jurrjens or Reyes, he does possess a fastball with decent movement coupled with a plus changeup that he can use to dominate as long as he manages to locate it correctly. James and Tom Glavine have a lot in common in that neither has an overpowering fastball or a back-breaking slider. However, they both can throw extremely effective changeups. When Chuck James can paint the corners at knee level with his change and his fastball, he is extremely effective. When he leaves either pitch over the plate or belt high, they resemble batting practice lollipops that even low-order hitters can turn into 420 foot shots. What's worse is that James has a greater tendency to throw such pitches after he has walked a batter by missing outside with his fastball and/or change. James will never be a star. However, he does have the ability to post a sub 4.00 ERA if he is able to gain better command of his pitches. If he is able to work the corners with his fastball and changeup and avoid walking too many batters, he will keep his pitch counts lower, allowing him to go deeper into games and reducing his tax on the bullpen. Simply keeping the ball in the lower half of the strike zone should prevent a few more balls from leaving the park. James stands as a safeguard that can reduce the risks associated with having a simultaneously old and young staff. Strong outings from James will take pressure off of vets like Smoltz or Hampton who may need an occasional day off to stay strong. Similarly, a strong year for James will allow Jurrjens and Reyes to make spot starts in place of resting vets from time to time without requiring them to assume the pressure of being full time members of the rotation, thus easing them into the big leagues. A healthy and effective Hampton would be wonderful. Early success from Jurrjens and Reyes would be fantastic. But a resurgent year from James may be the key on both ends of the spectrum.

James played through a torn rotator cuff last season that has now healed. He is currently locked in a battle with Jurrjens and Reyes for the rotations fifth spot. However, I would be surprised if Bobby Cox doesn't have him on the 25 man roster. If the Braves are to succeed this season, Chuck James must rise to the occasion.

I Love the Smell of Baseball in the Morning

That's right folks. Between all the wonderful soccer (yeah Spurs!), talk of college basketball and March Madness, an exciting NBA regular season (as unbelievable as that sounds), and the NFL draft (which takes up way too much room on the ESPN headlines than it should), it's easy to forget that Spring Training is running at full force now in Arizona and Florida. Here's a quick look at how the Braves lineup will probably shake down.

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The Braves' starting lineup for opening day projects to look something like this.

2B Kelly Johnson
SS Yunel Escobar
3B Chipper Jones
1B Mark Teixeira
RF Jeff Francoeur
C Brian McCann
CF Mark Kotsay
LF Matt Diaz (possibly in platoon with rookie Brandon Jones)


From an offensive standpoint, the 3-7 spots are extremely intimidating to opposing teams. The switch-hitting power combo of Chipper and Tex is right up there with the best heart-of-the-order tandems in baseball. Francoeur is now entering his third full season in the bigs and, if he can combine his power numbers of '06 with the average of '07 and continue to improve on his BB/K ratio, could look to make the transition from local star to national star. Brian McCann battled an unfortunate hand injury that hurt his average through the middle of the season. However, if he can remain healthy, he is one of the very best offensive catchers in baseball and should hit close to .300 with 20 HR's and 90+ RBIs. Two switch hitters followed by a righty-lefty combo in Francoeur and McCann will make late game situations difficult for opposing managers. If Chipper can play 140 games, this group could easily go for 400+ RBIS, 90-100 HR's and a composite BA right around .300.

However, outside of this core, there are a lot of lingering questions. There is a lot of pressure on Escobar to live up to his stellar rookie campaign. Bobby Cox may consider batting Escobar later in the order against right-handed starters to ease some of the pressure on the young Cuban. Mark Kotsay will not be able to replicate the power numbers of Andruw Jones, but he will also be under pressure to hit upward of .260 and get on base consistently. It will also be interesting to see if Matt Diaz, who has been one of the best hitters for average in all of baseball over the past few years, continues to succeed as he enters his third season with the Braves. If Kotsay, Escobar, or Johnson struggle in the one or two holes, Diaz could fill their spot. However, Kelly Johnson may actually be the most important key to success for the Atlanta offense. In 2005, Johnson was heralded as the Braves top offensive prospect, ahead of Francoeur and McCann. However, an 0-30 start to his big league career followed by a lost season in 2006 recovering from Tommy John surgery have caused him to fall of the radar. Yet Johnson is only 25 years old and is coming off his first full season in which he posted an OPS in excess of .800, which is excellent for a second baseman. A late slump hurt his average but that is common for young players. Now that he has gotten comfortable with his new position at 2B and has a year and a half of experience, look for Kelly Johnson as a sleeper to emerge as one of Atlanta's best offensive weapons. He has enough speed to be effective in the leadoff spot. He has the eye to bat second. And he has enough power to bring some pop to the back of the lineup. A season hitting .280 with 15 HR and 60 RBIs should be no problem, but I would not be surprised if he were able to push his average closer to .300 and hit 20 HR. If he hits in the 1 or 2 spots all season, I look for him to pass 100 R. The Braves have not had a 2B who has had numbers like that since the All-Star seasons of Marcus Giles four and five years ago. Such a performance from Johnson this season would ease some of the pressure on Escobar and Kotsay as well as give Tex and Chipper more RBI opportunities. Excluding the Phillies Chase Utley, 2B is a weakness for NL East teams. Johnson has a chance to become one of the better offensive 2B in the NL and give the Braves a weapon as second base that they have lacked for a few years.

While Atlanta is excited about Jordan Schafer, the power-hitting, base-stealing 21 year-old heir apparent to the CF job in 2009, there is another youngster who may have a bigger role to play this year. AAA Richmond shortstop and stud prospect Brent Lillibridge came over from the Pirates last year when the Braves sent LaRoche to Pittsburgh and, if not for the emergence of the slightly older Escobar, would probably be penciled in as the Braves SS of the future. He can hit for average, has great gap power with occasional HR distance, and has great speed on the bases. In addition, he is a wizard with the glove. He lacks the arm strength of Escobar but still has plenty of strength to make all the throws. He also has the ability to play the outfield, as well. Although Omar Infante will start the season as the Braves utility player (provided he recovers from the broken hand he suffered in winter ball), I personally would like to see where Lillibridge will fit in. Though he's inexperienced, he's well seasoned having been drafted after his junior year of college and spending last year in AAA Richmond. His ability to play 2B, SS, 3B and the outfield make him a wonderful asset and his speed fills the stolen bases void that opened after Furcal left for Dodgertown a few years back. He is great insurance if Escobar or Johnson sruggles or goes down with injury. Many scouts regard Lillibridge as a better overall prospect than Escobar. It will be interesting to see how Bobby Cox envisions Lillibridge's role with the Braves. He will probably start the year in Richmond so that he can continue to play everyday, but don't be surprised if Lillibridge becomes an important component of the Braves lineup come July and/or August.

I'll give a rundown of the Braves starting pitchers in a couple days. Until next time . . .

'Roid Wrap-up

Waxman wraps things up, and the main story is that we know that Pettite and Knoblauch have corroborated McNamee's story. He struck his gavel as Clemens tried to speak out during the close. Waxman apologized to McNamee, and rightly so - he took some really unwarranted abuse from some of the more deranged members of the committee. It becomes very clear during this kind of testimony which Congresspeople have law degrees and which do not.

Waxman appears to be biased against Clemens, but as the committee member who has spent the most time on this, it's understandable. The evidence is stacked against Clemens. Pettite and McNamee were both good friends of Clemens who in the past had stridently defended him, but in the end, under oath, they both told the truth. Knoblauch as well. McNamee's story holds up to scrutiny; Clemens' is highly implausible (and he doesn't have much of a response, really, aside from talking about how awesome he is and attacking McNamee's character).

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McNamee's behavior in response to a lot of the questioning was surprisingly composed. If anyone had come at me the way Burton had, I would have angrily asked him whether he was really seriously putting his committee and NY tabloid papers on the same level. But he calmly answered Yes or No to most of the questions from his assailants. Only when Shays (R-CT, again, a Republican) characterized him as a drug dealer towards the end did McNamee say anything more in response to an attack, and that was only to say "In your opinion." McNamee, it must be said, was literally a "drug dealer", but to characterize him as a common crack hood is misleading, as HGH and steroids are not exactly drugs of recreational abuse, and his illegal work was at the behest of two or three pretty rich and famous people. Waxman pointed out the latter fact (pointing at Clemens) after Shays ceased his attack.

Cummings was just being interviewed on TV upon conclusion of the session. He said that he thought these proceedings cleared up a lot for him. I think they did for the public as well. Clemens' ship is sinking. His attempt to silence the nanny before she spoke to the committee is really damaging. You just can't make this stuff up, can you? What a bizarre circus.

It's odd, as a sports fan working in Washington, DC, to sit here and see these two worlds collide. As Jayson Stark pointed out, it's sad, because most of us enjoy sports largely because they're an escape from real life. But in sports, as in politics, justice is paramount. Nothing today was definitive, but the session was clarifying. We might not be sure of Clemens' guilt beyond a reasonable doubt, but I think we're getting to the point where a preponderance of the evidence weighs against Clemens. Someone committed perjury here today. I think the Rocket's future destination may well be federal prison.

Partisanship and Baseball

Virginia Foxx opens her mouth again and attacks the Mitchell Committee representative for saying that they had evidence against Clemens when in her estimation they only had allegations. Ms. Foxx, you might be surprised to know that statements people make can be entered as evidence. Foxx tries to continue but Waxman cuts her off, as she's gone well over her time.

It has to be said: so far the Republicans appear to be big Clemens fans who will defend him in the face of all evidence to the contrary. The conduct of Foxx and Burton today has been shameful, and Issa (R-CA) has been almost as bad. Is Clemens a major Republican party donor?

The proceedings return to Rep. Cummings, who sensibly brings back up the point that the most believable people here are Pettite and Knoblauch, and that for Clemens' account to be true, it would require a lot of other people to be lying and for his implausible story to be true. Clemens repeats that he can't believe Pettite used HGH, and that Pettite must be mistaken about Clemens. Pettite's wife has also submitted an affidavit that Pettite and Clemens talked about his steroid use. "It is very hard to believe you," says Cummings.

Where do we FIND these people?

Virginia Foxx (R-NC) just displayed four photos of Clemens from across the years and declared that Clemens doesn't look any bigger in the later ones (though he clearly does, even if it's just his gut) and then invited Clemens to talk about his training regimen. Of course, rather than talking about his exercise, he's talking about his accomplishments in baseball. Waxman, thankfully, shut him up. How can such a brainless person as Foxx hold elected office?

DC has a voice!

Eleanor Norton Holmes, DC's (nonvoting) Representative, has asked the question we all were wondering: if McNamee was such a bad guy, why did Clemens continue to have close relations with him until after the Mitchell Report was released? Clemens' response: "I'm a forgiving guy."

It's hard to believe a word of what Clemens is saying at this point.

The Wax Man Speaketh

The committee chair is now questioning Clemens.



A bombshell here regarding the party at Canseco's, which has been used as an attempt to show that McNamee is unreliable. McNamee spoke (in detail, again) about Clemens' nanny, who was at the party. The committee asked Clemens last Friday for the nanny's name. Clemens - what incredible gall - is telling the committee that he "did them a favor" by finding the nanny's contact info and fulfilling their request. Amazing. Then, Camp Clemens contacted the nanny before she spoke to the committee! Amazing! He invited her TO HIS HOME and talked to her about the party, and this was before he turned over her contact info to the committee. Talk about tampering. Turns out that after the Committee actually spoke to the nanny, she revealed that he WAS INDEED at the party. There goes the attempt to discredit McNamee (and Clemens' attempt to silence the nanny, apparently). It seems to me that the true story is that Clemens went golfing the morning of the barbecue and then showed up later.

Clemens is pathetic. He is speaking right now continuing to say that he is doing the committee a favor. His lawyers are standing up behind him and speaking out of turn (they are not allowed to speak). This will be the enduring image of the hearing, and it looks really bad for Clemens.

Congressman Dan Burton is not very smart.

Well, here we have the first Congressman who is clearly an unabashed Clemens fan. The Republican from Indiana called Clemens a "titan" of baseball and brought up a number of statements that McNamee made to various newspapers about not being involved in steroids, and then yelled at McNamee for "lying to this committee". He told McNamee to his face that he didn't believe a word he said and called him a liar. Uh, Congressman. He's saying one thing under oath to a Congressional committee and another to the NY Post. Obviously he lied to the papers; who wouldn't? Why would he incriminate himself in talking to the freaking Post? And why would be perjure himself now? I wish McNamee had pointed this out to Burton.



How do we elect people like this to Congress?

By the way, McNamee is too confidently providing details of his accounts upon questioning for him to be lying. The man is obviously not very smart, so there's no way that he could be making this up off the cuff.

Turns out that Burton is a scumbag, according to Salon. Unbelievable that he railed on the committee for slandering Clemens and yet he led an all out attack on Clinton, all while having serious ethical scandals in his own recent past. Pathetic, hypocritical human being - and I'm being generous with the "human being" part. I cannot believe he's still in office. Indiana, wake up.

The Misrememberment Plan

Early on in this morning's hearing, Roger Clemens is going down in flames.

There's just no way around it.

I've got this morning's Congressional hearing streaming in one ear, and I'm almost embarrassed for Clemens. The opening statements by Clemens was pretty much what you'd expect: Roger on his high horse, talking about how great he is and how he never used steroids.

McNamee did not budge in his opening statement. He spoke honestly and confidently about Clemens' use of HGH and steroids. He pointed out that he had been a NY city police officer and that he didn't trust Clemens, which is why he kept those syringes and other evidence to back up his word.

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Clemens was unable to defend himself against the opening salvo from Rep. Elijah Cummings. Pettite has told the committee a number of times, under oath, written and in person, that Clemens has used steroids and HGH. As Rep. Cummings questioned Clemens about each of the inconsistencies between Clemens' and Pettite's statements, Clemens continually responded "I think he misremembers." Rep. Cummings pointed out that Pettite was his good friend, and would not say something repeatedly unless he was sure beyond any doubt about it. Clemens repeated "I think he misremembers." Rep. Cummings pointed out that some of Clemens' claims were impossible because of timeline issues between his account and Pettite's. Clemens repeated "I think he misremembers." This does not sound convincing.

McNamee has taken a couple of shots too, though. He testified about a barbecue at Jose Canseco's house where he and Clemens spoke about steroids. It seems as though Clemens was not at that party, according to Canseco, his wife, and Clemens' receipt from a golf course that day. Also, McNamee has in the past not been entirely truthful with federal investigators regarding a date rape incident in Florida (which I admittedly know nothing about) and also regarding the extent to which he initially said Clemens, Pettite, and Knoblauch used steroids and/or HGH.

But overall, this looks worse for Clemens. Clemens stated that Pettite misheard what he said about HGH in one of the disputed conversations. He said that he was actually talking about a TV commercial where elderly people said they had used HGH and it had improved their quality of life. He said that Pettite must have thought he was talking about himself. Uh, yeah, right.

The current Congressman (Davis?) is continuing to throw doubt into Clemens' credibility. Clemens has stated in separate accounts that he has never done any research into HGH, but that his wife used HGH and that she had some side effects from the drug. So he wants us to believe that in the aftermath of that that he never tried to learn anything about the drug. Right.

More to come...

Rocker on Rocker

From espn.com:

He tried to come back in 2005 in the minor leagues, but later quit. That year, he told ESPN.com: "I've taken a lot of crap from a lot of people. Probably more than anybody in the history of this sport. I know Hank [Aaron] and Jackie [Robinson] took a good deal of crap, but I guarantee it wasn't for six years. I just keep thinking: How much more am I supposed to take?"

Right, John. Hank Aaron and Jackie Robinson just took less than six years of crap. They've got nothing on your suffering. Poor you!

What a pathetic excuse for a human being.