We Want a Pitcher, Not a Belly Itcher

If there is one thing that has been difficult to get used to for all Braves fans, it's been the lack of quality starting pitching in Atlanta over the past few seasons. Some of the problems have been due to bad luck (Hampton's seemingly endless string of injuries). Some have been due to disappointing prospects (Kyle Davies). But most have been due to Atlanta's relatively frugal ownership. The Braves, to this day, have one of the healthiest farm systems in all of baseball . . . even after trading away four supposedly surefire prospects for Mark Teixeira. There once was a time when that healthy farm system would have made the Braves a frontrunner in the Johan Santana sweepstakes. A Braves package that included two top pitching prospects plus some other solid position players (perhaps Lillibridge and Brandon Jones?) plus perhaps a little more filler would have looked much better than anything the Twins were offered by the Mets, Yankees, or Red Sox. Such a trade would have given the Braves a rotation of Smoltz, Hudson, Hampton, Glavine, and Santana -- which would be quite the formidable group and about as close as the Braves could come to the Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux group of the '90's. But alas, the Ted Turner ownership days are long gone and the Braves have to fill the rotation using entirely different methods . . .

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The Braves offense has a lot of potential coupled with a lot of risk. The pitching staff is even more extreme. The Braves have a huge disparity in age between the veteran starters and the young guns. Smoltz is still one of the best pitchers in the game and, as one of the greatest post season starters of all time, could lead the way to playoff success. Glavine is no longer a frontline starter, but he and Smoltz have both been in the top five for quality starts the past two years. Tim Hudson is not a star, but is a solid #2 and as long as he keeps his sinker low, is one of the best groundball pitchers in the game. Hampton, before his series of injuries, was extremely effective with the Braves and could be one of the best #4 starters in baseball. The thing is, all these guys are getting up there in age. The time to win with this group is now. While Hudson still likely has a number of quality years remaining, Smoltz and Glavine are both over 40. For Hampton, this is a make or break year. It's the last year of his megacontract that he signed with Colorado seven years ago. If he pitches poorly or is injured again, his career could be finished. The time is now for this group of starters.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Braves have a crop of youngsters that have the potential to be really, really good. JoJo Reyes and Jair Jurrjens certainly have the stuff to succeed as frontliners in the big leagues. A second tier of prospects, including Chris Resop and Jeff Bennett among others, could also provide quality depth at the 4 and 5 spots. The question is, are these guys ready for the show right now?

The fact is, it is entirely unrealistic to think that the four veterans will all stay healthy for the whole season. Simultaneously, it is unrealistic to think that Reyes and Jurrjens will become the Cy Young candidates some scouts believe they can become soon enough to offset the loss of Smoltz, Glavine, or Hampton to injury. And that is why the success of the Braves in '08 may fall on the sore left shoulder of Chuck James.

Chuck James followed up a successful rookie campaign with a disappointing sophomore effort. His struggles in '07 were largely due to his inability to keep the ball in the park as he gave up 32 HR's in only 160 innings. This number combined with a .316 average against leadoff batters meant that James allowed far too many HR's with runners on. While Chuck James does not have killer stuff like Jurrjens or Reyes, he does possess a fastball with decent movement coupled with a plus changeup that he can use to dominate as long as he manages to locate it correctly. James and Tom Glavine have a lot in common in that neither has an overpowering fastball or a back-breaking slider. However, they both can throw extremely effective changeups. When Chuck James can paint the corners at knee level with his change and his fastball, he is extremely effective. When he leaves either pitch over the plate or belt high, they resemble batting practice lollipops that even low-order hitters can turn into 420 foot shots. What's worse is that James has a greater tendency to throw such pitches after he has walked a batter by missing outside with his fastball and/or change. James will never be a star. However, he does have the ability to post a sub 4.00 ERA if he is able to gain better command of his pitches. If he is able to work the corners with his fastball and changeup and avoid walking too many batters, he will keep his pitch counts lower, allowing him to go deeper into games and reducing his tax on the bullpen. Simply keeping the ball in the lower half of the strike zone should prevent a few more balls from leaving the park. James stands as a safeguard that can reduce the risks associated with having a simultaneously old and young staff. Strong outings from James will take pressure off of vets like Smoltz or Hampton who may need an occasional day off to stay strong. Similarly, a strong year for James will allow Jurrjens and Reyes to make spot starts in place of resting vets from time to time without requiring them to assume the pressure of being full time members of the rotation, thus easing them into the big leagues. A healthy and effective Hampton would be wonderful. Early success from Jurrjens and Reyes would be fantastic. But a resurgent year from James may be the key on both ends of the spectrum.

James played through a torn rotator cuff last season that has now healed. He is currently locked in a battle with Jurrjens and Reyes for the rotations fifth spot. However, I would be surprised if Bobby Cox doesn't have him on the 25 man roster. If the Braves are to succeed this season, Chuck James must rise to the occasion.