March Madness: One Shining Moment

Mario Chalmers FTW!



An incredibly exciting tournament comes to a close as Kansas beats Memphis in the championship game. It was really a very good, back and forth game. Both teams played at such a high level for most of the game that it was difficult to pinpoint exactly why one team or the other was ahead at any particular stage. For much of the game, the story was the Kansas D. But the quiet story was Kansas's intense focus on getting inside on every possession. This is generally a good strategy, and only faltered in the second half when they started taking bad contested shots inside. But without Dorsey in OT, Memphis lost one of the major obstacles to the Jayhawk big guys, and Kansas was able to re-establish its dominance in the paint.

Memphis could have still pulled it out, but they didn't get the performances they needed from Rose and and Douglas-Roberts. As good as those two are, they aren't quite "great". I never had the sense during the game that either one was capable of lifting his game in a big spot like Dwyane Wade or Carmelo Anthony. On the other hand, Kansas didn't have a dominant star either. But their team balance meant that they didn't really need one. When they did need a shotmaker, Chalmers, a 47% shooter from downtown, got the job done.

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I guess that's the one thing that really stands about about this final. Despite all the big names in this tournament - Beasley, Hansborough, Love, Curry - this was a game that wasn't about huge personalities. It was about a true team playing good, smart basketball. There wasn't a whole lot of razzle-dazzle, though good passing leads to some nice alley-oops. There wasn't a whole lot of reckless long range bombing or individual one-on-one play. None of these Kansas players are great, individually. But they came together to form something greater than the sum of its parts, and it was good enough to win. It was an excellent ending to a wonderful tournament. I'm not going to lie - I got some chills watching this edition of "One Shining Moment". And when it ended and the screen faded to black... ah, well, when you live for sports, when it serves as an escape from the pressures of real life, you can't help but feel at least a little bit sad when it's over.

A few other thoughts from tonight . . .

John Calipari:
I really dislike him. He's disingenuous and he doesn't graduate his players and he's complaining about the refs after losing. Loser.

Billy Packer:



I HATE him. Absolutely hate him. He makes incredibly idiotic comments and is more interested in hearing himself talk than saying anything insightful. I mean, sometimes he just makes sweeping generalizations off of premises that are just dead wrong. I'm talking factually incorrect. Oh, and he's also a major conference elitist, homophobic, racist, sexist, and an all-around jerk. CBS, get this guy the hell off the air. While you're at it, Nantz isn't bad, but Gus Johnson needs to be doing the big games. He's the best college play-by-play guy out there.

Marketing:



Look, I understand the need for advertising. I understand that without it, we don't get anything out of the tube except PBS. But you know what? Announcing an official LADDER of the NCAA Basketball Championships, and interrupting the net-cutting to do so, is going too far. Thanks for adulterating such a special moment, CBS and NCAA. I mean seriously, NCAA. You essentially get slave labor from these players who entertain us all and make you a killing but don't get a dime, and you need MORE cash?

March Madness: The Final Countdown

So, here we are. A little over an hour until tipoff, and a massive battle awaits. Kansas and Memphis. Two powerhouses. And one great game ahead.

This has been a pretty incredible tournament - certainly one of the most memorable in recent history. Somehow, simultaneously, we got a combination of unpredictable upsets (to a historic tune in that insane day in Tampa), legitimate Cinderella stories (Stephen Curry is now a part of all-time March Madness lore), and powerhouses rolling. I said at the outset of the tournament that I thought there was a wide gap between the #1 seeds and the #2 seeds, and that turned out to be true. At the end of the day, the four #1 seeds all crashed the Final Four.

We were treated to quite a display in the national semifinals. Memphis came out and just kept control of their game against UCLA all game long. It was ironic that the explosive Tigers quietly dominated the Bruins. Despite the fact that the game was close for a long stretch, UCLA never really looked like winning. The tempo was set by Memphis, and they casually tightened the noose all game long until the experienced, talented UCLA squad found themselves lifeless.

The other semifinal was a back and forth battle. The difference in body language in the first half and the second half was telling for UNC. The Tar Heels looked like a hapless high school (or Ivy League) team playing against a national powerhouse. Roy Williams failed to settle down his team and help them establish some sort of offensive rhythm. Possession after possession, UNC would bring the ball downcourt, fail to create a good shot, and toss something up in desperation as the shot clock expired. Kansas would then grab the rebound, fast break down the floor, and get an easy basket while UNC still stood at the other end shellshocked. You had to feel for Hansborough - he looked more flustered than he ever has in his stellar college career. The second half, however, saw the return of Psycho T. With a fire in his eyes, Hansborough helped power UNC back into the game. They were just too far behind to make it all the way back. A 28 point deficit is almost impossible to overcome in college. Kansas regained control late and booked their spot in the finals.

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So here we are. Kansas - one of the best passing college teams I've seen. Fantastic defense. Fantastic offensive balance. Memphis - bruising backcourt power. Explosiveness. This has all the makings of a true classic. A fitting end to a tournament that I'll remember for years to come.

FIRST HALF UPDATE:
At the break it's Kansas 33, Memphis 28. So far, Kansas has looked like the better team. Their offensive sets have been more precise. Their spacing is exquisite. This has led to a slew of easy baskets in the paint. They are getting, as usual, balanced contributions from their top seven. They have had some sloppiness in passing around the perimeter, which has led to turnovers.

Memphis hasn't looked quite as sharp, largely because Kansas is shutting down Derrick Rose. He's getting cut off every time he drives and being forced to toss it back outside in desperation. He's turned it over a few times. His inability to penetrate has made it tough for anyone else on Memphis to get going. Anyone else, that is, except the incredible Chris Douglas-Roberts, who is making things happen all by his lonesome. He's got 13 - almost half of his team's 28. But he can only carry them so far. Rose has to get going and make it possible for guys like Dozier and Dorsey to get more easy baskets. Speaking of the double D's, they're going to have to watch their fouls, because there's not much on the bench for Memphis.

It will be interesting to see what adjustments Memphis makes at halftime. They have to find a way to get the halfcourt offense going. Stepping up the defense will be difficult against a Kansas team as balanced and as good at passing as this one is. But if Rose can get going, then this will be a different game altogether.

UPDATE AT 8 MINUTES TO GO:
The Tigers have pulled ahead. Both teams are playing at an exceptionally high level right now. Rose isn't quite untracked yet, but he's had more success penetrating and has hit a deep three to help add some juice into the Memphis attack. The team is cutting better now and the passing out of the middle has been better.

Meanwhile, Kansas has slowed down a little bit. They're taking a couple of bad shots inside. Also, because they were getting so many easy buckets inside early, they had almost nothing going outside - and they still have had almost no outside shooting. They're going to need to take advantage of their ability to get it inside and their great floor spacing to open up some outside shots. Rush and Chalmers can definitely hit those shots.

3:49 TO GO:
The Memphis resurgence is in full effect. Kansas can't get a bucket, and Rose just used his exceptional upper body strength to muscle in the first 2 points of a three-point play.

Oh, and what an incredible off-balance shot from Rose! With the shot clock running down, he tossed up a prayer and banks it in. That's the stuff of destiny. Hard to see Memphis losing now. They're up 8. However, I'm almost sure that one of his feet was inside the line when he went up for that shot. They gave him a three. It looked to me like a two.

And, it looks like I was right. Shot is changed to a two. Memphis by 7 it is.

44 SECONDS TO GO:
Woo-boy, what a finish this will be! Kansas with a furious comeback. The big play was a steal and a three off a Memphis inbounds. CDR just missed the first end of a one-and-one - will free throw shooting do in Memphis after all? Memphis by 2 with the ball!

Kansas misses a golden opportunity as Memphis misses the shot and Kansas pushes the ball down the floor on a fast break. Unfortunately it's not fast enough as a gang of Tigers swats the layup attempt away. CDR is fouled and misses both, but Dozier gets a HUGE offensive rebound - big mistake by Kansas there. They should have the ball now, but instead it's Rose on the line for 2.

Misses the first!

Makes the second!

Kansas rushes downcourt, almost loses it, time running out, Chalmers with a long three...

IT'S GOOD! WHAT A SHOT! PURE! NOTHING BUT NET! MARIO CHALMERS!

Dozier misses the desperation shot and we're going to overtime!

WHAT A FINISH!

Dorsey has fouled out. Memphis has missed 4 of it's last 5 at the line - so much for "they'll make them when it matters", eh Coach Cal? Kansas quickly scores the first two of overtime on a steal and a Rush layup - fasten your seatbelts!

2:29 TO GO IN OT:
Kansas has all the momentum. The precision halfcourt offense is back, and with no Dorsey guarding the rim, the Kansas big guys are getting better looks once the Jayhawks break down the Memphis defense.

Kansas is on an 18-3 run. Memphis down by 6, but certainly still with a shot. Have to stem the tide with a score here.

57 SECONDS TO GO IN OT:
Memphis is blowing it mentally - nonexistent transition D leaves Rush with an open layup - and then when he misses, there aren't even any Tigers around to contest the rebound, so Rush easily puts it in on the second try. As an impartial observer, that had more the look of tragedy than of comedy, but in any other situation, it'd have been the latter. And yet despite the wheels coming off, CDR nails a three and pulls his team to within 3. Kansas with the ball. This game is not over yet.

FINAL SCORE: Kansas 75, Memphis 68
Kansas hits its free throws and the Tigers doesn't have a miracle in them. Incredible comeback by Kansas. After the Rose three, it really seemed like this night belonged to Memphis, but they were upstaged by Kansas and Chalmers, who was named MOP. Arthur was quietly consistent all game long and was really better, but you can't not give the award to the guy who hit the shot that saved Kansas.

What a fantastic final. That was, as I had hoped it would be, one for the ages. Only one thing left now... and down come the nets. Here's to One Shining Moment for the Kansas Jayhawks, 2008 NCAA Men's Basketball Champions.

March Madness: The Beginning of the End

We have got a great couple of games tonight. I'm watching UCLA-Memphis right now and it has been very entertaining. Before the game ends though, I wanted to post the best bracket I've seen from anyone I know: that of my own brother, Nayir.

This bracket is in the 99th percentile on Yahoo:



Not bad, eh?

Those dadgum logos

As the NCAA tournament is set to resume tonight with the first four matchups of the Sweet 16, word comes that those obnoxiously large NCAA logos that Rice referred to are being removed, and won't be back for the rest of the tournament.

The decision came at the urging of UNC coach Roy Williams, who made a point to speak out about the logos after a number of players slipped on them in the tournament's first weekend. Turns out the logos were just big decals, which begs the question: what idiot thought it was a good idea to slap stickers all over the court? What is this, a kindergarteners convention? For the record, Rice and I were just annoyed by how large they were, as if people didn't realize that the tournament was run by the NCAA. Every time a point guard walked the ball up the court it looked like he was wading into a pool. Anyway, luckily that ridiculousness is over with and we can just enjoy the basketball. The Louisville-Tennessee matchup should be a great one. Let's go Big East!

March Madness: First Weekend MVP

Curry and Rice hereby name Stephen Curry the MVP of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. Davidson is the only team that has beaten two higher seeded teams to reach the Sweet 16, and Curry has looked absolutely unreal so far. Dropping 40 on Gonzaga was absurd enough, but the perseverance he showed in fighting through a poor first half against Georgetown to bury them cold-heartedly with ridiculous threes and Ginobili/Parker/Wade/Iverson-esque drives in crunch time sealed it. He was been the single most amazing player to watch in this crazy first weekend that has made so little sense that experts like Rice and myself have seen our brackets obliterated in completely unexplainable fashion. Performances like Stephen's and wins like Davidson's are why this tournament is so amazing to watch. Stephen Curry, we salute you, in awe. Also, I like your last name.

March Madness: Day 1

Well, the greatest single sport event outside of the World Cup is underway, and we've seen some fantastic games so far - and some bracket busters... ouch.

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The tournament started off by inducing heart attacks in a number of us who expected Xavier to reach the Sweet 16. Georgia, which was coming off of a stunning and unexpected run to the SEC championship wherein they won 4 games in 3 days and weathered the tornadoes in Atlanta, came out looking good, and Xavier, the highest ranked mid-major in the country, came out flat. Georgia doesn't really have a whole lot of talent, but they seemed to be riding on emotion, and Xavier seemed unprepared. Luckily, Xavier righted the ship and came out on top, but that would have been quite an upset.

Kansas, Michigan State, and Marquette all followed with fairly easy victories, all of which I expected. I did not, however, expect UNLV to beat Kent State, let alone comprehensively. UNLV has done well this year relying on all grit and defense, but they have no offense. Kent State, meanwhile, was a balanced team, with good scoring inside and outside and solid D. But UNLV strangled Kent State in the first half, and by the time the halftime whistle blew, the score read 31-10 UNLV. They then cruised to the victory.

Pitt advanced easily, as did Purdue. Stanford absolutely embarrassed Cornell, holding them to 15.6% shooting in the first half. That should have been Princeton getting blown out in the first round, not Cornell! Ugh, let's not get started on the state of Princeton basketball.

Then came a couple of pivotal games. USC-Kansas State was given top billing going into the day, and it didn't disappoint. It was a back and forth battle, Michael Beasley each living up to the hype in his tournament debut - OJ Mayo not so much. In watching USC this year, I decided that they were a great threat to make a deep run in the tournament, not because of Mayo but because of his supporting cast. With Taj Gibson and Daniel Hackett finally rounding into shape leading into the tournament, I figured they were underseeded at 6. But in this game, Beasley's supporting cast came up huge, and K State pulled off the upset, hurting my bracket significantly, as I had USC in the Elite 8.

At the same time that that game was playing out, Duke was holding on for dear life against Belmont. I did not see much of this game, mostly because I watched the other, expecting Duke to pull away at some point. Rice will probably have more insights on this game, but from what I saw, it was just a case of Belmont playing really well and matching Duke shot for shot. It came down to the very end, with Gerald Henderson driving the length of the floor for a layup with 12 seconds left to give Duke a one point win. Here's Rice's take on the game, sent to me in an email:

Belmont played a great game . . . it was a combination Princeton offense wed with a spread . . . ironically, it was essentially Duke's offense. And Belmont's defense was solid. They couldn't keep up with Henderson and Nelson was definitely off of his game, but they stayed at home on the three point shooters and never were caught out of position. But I agree, Duke didn't play too terribly. The only thing going out of that game that I can say is that Demarcus Nelson has the flu, which is the only way I can explain how he got beat off the dribble so much. It's the only way to explain why the ACC defensive player of the year coudn't guard Belmont's point guards. Singler also apparently has the flu, but he didn't play too terribly. Definitely not a vintage Singler game, but still. Duke had far too many unforced errors and we certainly failed to hit our threes, but besides Nelson's paltry 2 points and 4 turnovers, we didn't look terrible. Talk about a maddeningly inconsistent team. We absolutely dominate Carolina, Wisconsin, Clemson, and cruise to relatively easy victories over Maryland and VaTech only to lose to UNC and Clemson and then win by one against Belmont. I just hope the confidence of the team isn't shot going into tomorrow's game. We need to regain the swagger we had earlier in the season. And if you happen to find the real DeMarcus Nelson wandering lost through the streets of DC, please direct him to the correct basketball venue.

In the remainder of the day's action, Washington State beat up on Winthrop, Texas A&M squeaked out a win against BYU, and Notre Dame took out George Mason. Wisconsin was able to pull away from CSF in the second half, so the upset I was hoping for didn't happen. CSF, oddly, chose not to push the tempo, walking the ball up the floor on their possessions, which played right into Wisconsin's hands. Here's some advice, kids: when tournament time comes around, don't get away from what got you there. Speed would have rattled the Badgers; instead, they walked away with a fairly comfortable win. West Virginia then beat Arizona in a game I hope shut some experts up. Look, I know Arizona is a strong program and had some big wins this year, but they also had quite a few losses - 14 of them, to be exact. At their best, they're obviously very good, but their best doesn't show up very often and I don't know why analysts thought it would yesterday. They were vastly overrated and were rightfully beaten by a better WVA squad. In the final game of the night, UCLA trounced Miss Valley State 70-29... ouch. Yeah, that was a bit of a mismatch.

Anyway, that's it for day 1. I picked 13 out of 16 games correctly in my bracket (the bracket I played in my pool at work had the BYU-A&M game right), but it really wasn't a very good day because I lost an Elite 8 team, and all 3 of my misses were in the Midwest, so that region is already fouled up. I have to hope that Clemson and Gtown join Kansas in that region's final four. But I'm not too worried overall, because last year I had a bad day 1 and then was nearly perfect the rest of the way and finished 2nd out of over 100 brackets at work, netting me a nice chunk of change. Hopefully the same happens this year. Day 2 games start in a few minutes, so here's to another exciting day of college basketball.

The Curry and Rice Final Four Picks

UNC, Texas, Kansas, and UCLA.

Champion: UCLA over Kansas

Not only did Rice and I each come up with this independently, we each decided it was difficult to see any other Final Four. The one seeds are strong, except Memphis, which isn't going to survive against Texas in Houston if it even makes it that far.

My big first round upset is Cal St. Fullerton over Wisconsin. Likely? No. But CSF and its uber-uptempo guard oriented offense will match up well against the Badgers and jarr them out of their slowdown style. Wisconsin is probably still good enough to win, but I feel like this particular matchup helps CSF enough that I'm going to roll the dice with them. I think either team will be overwhelmed by USC in the second round anyway. The other minor upset I can see is St. Joseph's over Oklahoma.

OK, time to eat lunch and see if Xavier can remember how to play basketball in the second half. If not, I'm going to lose a Sweet 16 team in the very first game of the tournament.

Clash of the Titans

It's Duke and UNC baby! The greatest rivalry in all of the world baby!! The heart! The passion! The P-T-P'ers! The Diaper Dandies! It's the greatest game in the universe!

Actually, thanks to Raycom, which controls all of ACC country, I didn't get to hear the triumphant return of Dick Vitale. Instead, I was forced to endure Billy "Scrooge" Packer on WATL. I know many of you probably aren't huge Vitale fans, but at least he actually loves the sport of college basketball. In a previous post, my esteemed colleague Curry criticized Joe Buck for failing to adequately dramatize one of the greatest plays in Super Bowl history. Joe Buck did this because he's Joe Buck and he doesn't know enough about football to recognize historic moments. Billy Packer, however, fails to dramatize important moments because he is so egotistical and condescending, he would rather lead the audience to believe that no matter how incredible a moment in the game might be, he, Billy "Scrooge" Packer, has seen better. Much better. In fact, that the sweet turnaround jumper that Kyle Singler made over Hansbrough at a critical moment in the game was not even worth mentioning. Indeed, Paulus' three point assault only moved Scrooge to complain about Paulus' choice to shoot quickly before getting his feet set (despite the fact that he does set his feet set and a quick release is a good thing, plus the guy shoots well over 40%, so I would think he knows what he's doing). To be fair, Packer doesn't only fail to praise Duke for solid play. He didn't even bother to get excited when UNC went on a nice run to come within three points of Duke at the half. The Dean Dome was rocking. The momentum appeared to be turning, pointing to an exciting second half and another classic finish to a Duke/UNC matchup. There wasn't one person in the entire stadium that wasn't excited . . . except for Scrooge, that is. Dick Vitale maybe over the top, but at least he cares. Ok, enough about that. My rundown of the Duke/UNC Round 1, 2008 edition is after the jump.

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The Duke/UNC game this Wednesday says far more about UNC than it does about Duke. Needless to say, I was ecstatic to witness Duke handle a strong and supposedly deep UNC team so easily. Though Tar Heel stud Ty Lawson was unable to play due to injury, Duke demonstrated that the doom and gloom from media and blogs in the preseason was premature. Yes, Duke lacks a "true" post presence, but they make up for it in other ways (more on this in a minute). While Lawson would obviously have made a difference for UNC, there is no guarantee he would have been able to win the game for the boys in Powder Blue. In fact, it is possible that the result would have been exactly the same. Why, you ask? UNC has a flaw that is actually more severe than Duke's lack of size in the post. How do I know this? Because Duke had the exact same flaw for the three previous years.

Although J.J. Redick will always be one of my all-time favorite Dukies, he never was able to become a strong defender. He was a smart and savvy player who made up for his lack of quickness with a high basketball IQ. But he could do nothing to prevent opposing guards from entering the paint at will. Last year, the injured Greg Paulus was forced to play mega-minutes through pain, wearing down as the game wore on, and eventually surrendering the paint to the opposing point guard. On all three of those teams, a lack of depth at the guard positions hurt. While Sean Dockery was a quality defender, his inability to run the offense made it difficult for him to make a serious impact. In 2005, Duke only could offer Redick, Daniel Ewing, and Sean Dockery as viable options at guard due to an injury that slowed DeMarcus Nelson. In 2006, after the departure of Ewing through graduation, freshman Greg Paulus was forced to play super minutes at the point, wearing down as the season wore on. 2007 was no different, with Nelson, Scheyer, and Paulus forced to handle all opposing guards as Henderson was not yet ready to help out. While the 2005 and 2006 teams were still really good, this was due to the offensive and defensive presence of Sheldon Williams in the paint. Sheldon could block shots, rebound, and score at the other end. This negated some of the effectiveness of opposing guards. Once Williams departed, McRoberts, who was inferior both defensively and offensively, failed to fill the void, making dribble penetration a big reason why Duke was ousted in the first rounds of the ACC and NCAA tournaments.

With the injury to Bobby Frasor earlier in the season, UNC now has a much smaller arsenal of guards to choose from. Thomas is a serviceable point guard similar to Dockery in that he is significantly better at defense than offense and seems unable to play significant minutes without making important mistakes on the offensive side and wearing down defensively. While speedy starter Lawson was injured during the Duke game, he is actually worse than Thomas at defense as he lacks the size (he's listed at 6 feet but he's probably closer to 5-11 or 5-10), the length (shorter point guards such as Chris Duhon of Duke and Ray Felton of UNC made up for shortness in size with armspan, although neither player is as short as Lawson), and the strength to significantly bother opposing point guards. Wayne Ellington is a solid player, but his quickness is actually little overrated. He struggles to get his shot off against quick and strong defenders and is even more suspect when guarding quick, strong players (such as Demarcus Nelson or former high school teammate Gerald Henderson). On the interior, Hansbrough, despite his amazing work ethic and eye-popping offensive ability, is merely an average defender. He averages only 0.2 blocks per game and lacks the armspan and the athleticism to alter shots. He plays smart defense and is able to compensate for his deficiencies through heady play (much like Redick, actually), but is ultimately a defensive liability.

Which finally brings me to the game itself. Analysts attribute Duke's relatively easy win to hot outside shooting and the absence of Lawson. However, even with Lawson, UNC would have been unable to slow Duke's five guard attack. UNC simply does not have the personnel to match Scheyer, Paulus, Henderson, Nelson, and reserve Nolan Smith. While Hansbrough dominated in the post from an offensive standpoint (28 points), his lack of defensive prowess was exposed by Singler, who was easily able to drive by Hansbrough or shoot over him, and Lance Thomas. In fact, Lance Thomas may have been the biggest surprise of the game. The world knows that Duke can shoot the three and that Singler poses a mismatch to opposing forwards. However, who knew that Thomas could score in the post on Hansbrough? Thomas, in fact, scored at will against Hansbrough. Though he is probably the eighth offensive option on a deep Duke squad and rarely even receives the ball on offense, he was able to catch the ball in the post and use his quickness to shoot right over Hansbrough, finishing 5/6 from the field with 10 points . . . 10 very easy points. The threes certainly were falling for Duke, which made it unnecessary to rely on Thomas or Singler for much offense in the post, but the few times either of those two players squared off against Hansbrough, they were almost always able to score a bucket. For UNC fans, this is now four separate games when quick forwards have been able to score at will against Hansbrough, Thompson and the other UNC post defenders. If Hansbrough had been less effective offensively, scoring even 20 points, it may even be possible to make the argument that Duke won the battle in the post as well as on the perimeter.

Hanbrough's season has been incredible and I actually really like the guy, despite the U-N-C written across his jersey. However, his staggering offensive output is masking the serious defensive liabilities of his team, both in the post and on the perimeter. Since it seems unlikely that Hansbrough, Lawson, and Ellington will develop into stud defenders, there is no reason to think UNC's defensive deficiencies will be fixed. Outscoring opponents will be hard to do against high scoring teams like Duke, Tennessee, Memphis, or Kansas that feature quality guard play. Similarly, disciplined teams with strong defensive post presences like Georgetown in last year's Elite Eight, will be able to slow or even neutralize Hansbrough who, for all of his strengths, is not particularly quick. If Ellington is not hitting his shots and Lawson isn't preventing dribble penetration, Carolina can lose to anyone, just as Duke could lose to anyone in 2005 if Redick failed to hit his shots and Paulus was unable to contain the opposing point guard. Carolina's margin for error is far slimmer than I had envisioned at the beginning of the season, just as Duke's was much smaller in 2005 than most realized thanks to the phenomenal year J.J. Redick had. In fact, it may be smaller than 2008 Duke's, which brings me to my final point. The Heels can make a run at a title, but Lawson, Ellington, and Thomas will either have to morph into lock-down perimeter defenders or their high octane offense will have to operate at max power for six consecutive games against increasingly difficult competition.

Many in the media, including Jay "I swear I never went to Duke" Bilas, have argued that Duke will lose when it faces strong inside team. Many point to the loss to Pitt in Madison Square Garden six weeks ago as proof of that theory. However, this is actually wrong. Duke has won many games in which they've been on the short end of double-digit rebounding deficits. Perhaps even more telling, they've even won those games when they've shot relatively poorly from three-land (Maryland and Clemson games). They've allowed opposing forwards to utterly dominate in the paint and have still rolled on to comfortable victories (J.J. Hickson of NC State). What doomed Duke against Pitt was an inability to exploit their biggest strength, perimeter defense, into a large turnover differential. If Duke is not hitting from outside, turnover margin becomes the most important stat of the game. Against Pitt, Duke turned it over 19 times to Pitt's 22, leading to multiple easy buckets for Pitt which entirely negated the points off turnovers earned by Duke's solid defense. The most recent Forde Minutes on ESPN.com claims that Duke will lose because an opposing forward will dominate them inside the way Dejuan Blair of Pitt was able to. Hansbrough dominated inside more than Blair and UNC has more all around talent than Pitt, yet Duke still won easily. Similar, they defeated Maryland despite stellar games from Gist and Osby. What Pitt was able to do is match Duke's guard play. While Pitt was not exactly turnover free, Levance Fields and company were able to give as much as they received, forcing Duke's guards into multiple unforced errors. Despite poor free-throw shooting (55%) and despite an anemic 22% from three-point land, Duke still could have ground out a victory if they had protected the basketball better at the guard positions. The lack of a large turnover differential made rebounds the deciding factor, something Duke cannot afford. Duke will not necessarily lose when they face a dominant post presence. They will not necessarily lose when they can't hit three's or shoot free throws. As long as Duke's guards take care of the basketball and force turnovers, they do not need to be reliant on the three point shot. The teams that are most dangerous to Duke are teams with strong inside play combined with quality guard play who can take care of the basketball and make sure that Duke's strong perimeter play does not give them an edge in turnovers.

However, keep in mind that Duke was a made free-throw and a made put-back by Singler at the buzzer away from scraping out a win. While Duke is not quite in the same realm as UCLA, Kansas, Memphis, or possibly even a fully healthy UNC, they are very, very close. If opposing guards aren't up to the challenge posed by Duke's strong backcourt and turn the ball over, Duke can beat anyone whether or not the threes are falling. And that is especially true for teams such as UNC that are unable to put pressure on Duke's guards and do not pose much of a shot-blocking threat to Duke's slashers. While there's no doubt that Duke would be an even better team with a strong scorer on the block, chalking Duke's victories up to strong perimeter shooting fails to grasp the more important reason why Duke is looking like Duke again.