Just say no

We're past the halfway point of the season and the final third is well underway. We're 6 1/2 out of the division lead but in second place with a number of games against the Phillies left on the slate. We're only 3 1/2 back in the Wild Card. The Braves have championship caliber pitching. In fact, staff "ace" Derek Lowe is probably the worst of the bunch. Our offense is starting to come around now that Frenchy is gone, Anderson is finally healthy and hitting, McClouth has replaced Schafer and Prado has emerged to provide the production everyone thought Kelly Johnson was capable of providing. It certainly seems like a deal similar to the deal for Teixeira would be the prudent move right now. Add that big bat to complete the lineup and finally pair a first-class offense with our first class pitching and, bam! Playoffs!

Luckily, it looks like Frank Wren and Bobby Cox are content with the team at hand. Yes, it is possible that a big bat could put the Braves over the top, but the playoffs would still seem unlikely. The Phillies have a big lead and there are a lot of teams to leapfrog for the Wild Card. Meanwhile, the Braves don't want to disrupt a suddenly formidible lineup by moving too many pieces in a trade. McClouth and Escobar are the most attractive pieces to other teams, but there's no way McClouth leaves with the contract he has. And, despite the fact that Escobar has some attitude problems, there aren't many young, cheap shortstops out there who can do all the things Escobar can do. The market is small for line-drive hitting first basemen like Kotchman and the Braves would have to get a first baseman in return. The rumor mill had Vazquez as a possible trading piece with Tim Hudson on the way, but the Braves have no clue how Hudson will fare after his surgery and Vazquez value will likely still be high at the end of the season when the Braves have a chance to see if it's worth picking up Hudson's option for the following season. Then they could choose to move either Hudson or Vazquez to fill other positions or even possibly keep them both, depending on how the rest of the rotation shakes out.

Also, the list of big bats available is headlined by Holiday who will be a Boras represented free agent after next year and oh so clearly benefited from the Coors Field Factor as his numbers in an A's uniform prove. Holiday is not a difference maker. In fact, I'd take Prado over Holiday any day of the week.

Why not just sit tight? Instead of paying an inflated price for a name-brand, why not just sit tight and hope the next wave of Baby Braves prove to have a few more successes than their predecessors. Frenchy, McCann, LaRoche, and Johnson were supposed to be cornerstones. Instead, only McCann has met expectations. Tommy Hanson has been just as advertised so far, but Freddy Freeman and Jason Heyward are only a year or two away. A Yankees scout said he would trade anyone in his organization to land the long-ball hitting Heyward. While that's probably an exaggeration, it shows how much talent Heyward has. To put things in perspective, Heyward is more highly regarded than Francoeur in 2005 by far. And Freeman is not too far behind. And don't forget about Schafer, who was probably rushed to the majors too soon and suffered a setback with his wrist after being demoted. An outfield with McClouth, Schafer, and Heyward with Freeman at first base may not be too far around the corner. As long as those players live up to their potential, the big bats the Braves want will be arriving soon enough . . . from within the organization.

Text before the jump

Read more...

Text after the jump

State of the Braves

Well, we're getting closer to the halfway point in the season, so it's time to take a look at where the Braves stand. Before the season started, I made a list of questions that the Braves needed to answer in order to be successful. Not surprisingly, it seems like about half of those questions have been answered for the better and the other half . . . well, not so good.

Read more...

First, the good news. The starting pitching staff has come together and is arguably the best in the NL East. Actually, I think it is definitely the best in the NL East, especially now that Kawakami has settled down. The numbers are a little skewed due to the 3 starts awarded to Jo-Jo Reyes, who's value as a prospect has plummeted, but now that Tommy Hanson (who is projected to become a number one starter) is filling the 5th spot in the rotation, the Braves can trot out a rotation whose 5th option may have the most talent of all. Javy Vazquez has enjoyed his return to the NL and is pitching to his talent level. Lowe has been a rock. Jurrjens has taken his pitching to the next level. Kawakami started slow, but has a sub 3.50 ERA over his last 7 starts. And even though Hanson's debut didn't go as planned, he showed during the first three perfect innings exactly what he is capable of. The starters have been good and, as Hanson adjusts to the majors, they have more upside than any starting staff the Braves have assembled in a long, long time.

Now the bad. The offense . . . and by the offense I mean Francoeur. McCann has been his usual self after he got that vision thing cleared up. Chipper has come alive, even if he misses a few games here and there. Escobar has been solid. Kelly Johnson hasn't improved like I had hoped, but the Braves were never counting on him. Francoeur, however, hasn't provided any power and his deplorable slugging and on-base percentages are making an offense that was already lacking for power truly horrible. The McClouth trade is a step in the right direction as it gives the Braves a true leadoff hitter, a true stolen base threat, and allows Johnson to hit lower in the order where he's more comfortable (more about this trade later). However, unless Garrett Anderson suddenly sheds five years, the Braves have far too little power to afford to have an automatic out machine like Francoeur in the lineup. The Braves' brass has given Francoeur plenty of time to show he can adjust. It's clear now that he will never be the player the Braves (and everyone else, for that matter) thought he would be. It's time to trade him while he still has a shred of value and look for other ways to fill the void in outfield production.

As for the McClouth trade, it was a masterstroke by Frank Wren. Yes, a masterstroke. The only prospect with any real potential that the Braves gave up was Gorkys Hernandez, a super-speedster who has the potential to hit for average and steel bases. Charlie Morton and Locke are fifth/fourth starters at best. The Braves already have guys who can fill those roles if need be in Jeff Bennett, Jorge Campillo (when he comes off the DL) and now, rookie and future number 3 starter Kris Medlen. Hernandez might be good one day, but his absolute ceiling would be a Jose Reyes type player with less power. Yeah, that'd be great, but it's unlikely he ever becomes that good and I'd rather take a proven commidity like McClouth who hits for a little power, is an excellent base stealer and will be under contract for a reasonable amount for four full years. Now Schafer can take his time to develop. When he comes up, he or McClouth can move to one of the corner outfield slots, giving the Braves extremely good defense in the outfield, and the Braves will have two speedsters with power potential. If you recall, Hernandez came over with Jurrjens from the Tigers in the Edgar Renteria trade. That means that Wren has turned Edgar Renteria, a SS who is quickly fading, into a potential All-Star pitcher in Jurrjens and an All-Star centerfielder in McClouth who both will be with the Braves for relatively cheap for at least the next three years. Oh yeah, and it allowed Escobar, who is in so many ways a Renteria clone, at least at the plate, to blossom. So yeah, I'd say the Renteria deal has been a resounding success for the Braves so far.

Great Start for Los Bravos

It's been a great start to the season for the Braves, so far. Does quantity equal quality in terms of the starting pitching? The answer so far has been a resounding yes as Braves' starters lead the majors in ERA through the first week. Obviously, the staff won't sustain this level of success for the whole season, but at the very least it looks like Jurrjens, Lowe, Vasquez and Kawakami are all capable of eating up some innings and notching many quality starts along the way. Can the offense generate enough runs? So far, so good. Kelly Johnson has been on fire, Escobar has been on fire, Chipper's always on fire, McCann is playing like he wants to win an MVP, the bottom of the order is producing (Jordan Schafer, welcome to the bigs!). The two remaining question marks right now are the bullpen, which seems to be in limbo, and Frenchy. Read on after the jump . . .

Read more...



What to make of the bullpen?

The bullpen has either been brilliant or horrible, depending on which game you look at. The Braves should easily be 6-0 right now if it weren't for an epic 7th inning bullpen meltdown in which the pen allowed 7 runs in one inning to the Phillies (four runs the restult of bases-loaded walks or hit-batsmen), to open the door for a miraculous comback. On the other hand, the bullpen has looked great in other stretches (such as the game prior to the 7th inning meltdown when the pen combined for 4 scoreless innings). In my mind, the pen is simply in limbo. Two years ago, Soriano, with the exception of a horrible three week stretch when he couldn't keep the ball in the park, clearly emerged as the Braves closer of the near future by shutting down opposing offenses first as the setup man to Bob Wickman and then as the closer after Wickman was traded. He started '08 as the Braves' 9th inning man but spent almost the entire year on the DL with a series of odd ailments. During this time, Gonzo came back from tommy john surgery and took the closing job by default with mixed results. Some nights he was awesome, some nights he couldn't get anyone out. However, with Soriano's continued arm issues, Gonzo has started '09 as the closer. However, i'm not so sure that Soriano shouldn't be the man with the ball in his hands in the 9th inning when he's healthy. He's got the most talent between the two, especially since Gonzo has lost so much velocity post-surgery. He looked stellar in the Sunday's sweep of the Nationals by notching a perfect ninth. Until the closer's role is locked down by either Soriano or Gonzo, the pen will have a difficult time adjusting to new roles. It's also important that the Braves determine if Moylan needs more rehab. He was absolutely unhittably in 2007, but lost 2008 due to surgery. If he can come back strong, the Braves will really be able to shorten games. However, his first three outings this year have mostly been disasters. It's imperative that Moylan rediscover his old form if the pen is to be a strength this season.

As for Frenchy, I still don't know what to make of the former golden boy. In spring training he waled more than he struck out and hit .367 with a new batting stance and plate approach. Pretty awesome for a dude who got a standing ovation the first time he walked in a major league game . . . over 100 at bats after his first major league appearance. The problem is, the season started and it's same old Frenchy. Only one walk this season, so far. His average is hovering around .220 or so. On the other hand, he's taken the ball to the opposite field on a number of occasions, most notably yesterday when he got a triple by taking a hanging breaking ball on the outside half down the right field line. Old Frenchy would have tried to pull it and hit a lazy pop off the end of the bat. This was clearly a step in the right direction. He also has produced in the clutch much better than he did last season, making his few hits very productive hits. Hopefully the average will creep up as long as he continues to stick to his commitment of hitting to all fields. Johnson, Escobar, Chipper, and McCann are going to be on base a lot in front of Francoeur and the Braves absolutely need him to drive them in. Hopefully yesterday's two triple performance is a sign of things to come.

The biggest story so far, however, has been the emergence of Jordan Schafer. Obviously his offense has been very good, especially for a hitter in the 8th spot. I think Schafer will start the '10 season as the leadoff hitter, but I like that he is hitting 8th right now. No reason to rush the kid. However, if he keeps slugging the way he has, Bobby Cox may have no choice but to move him up, especially since he is the Braves' only legitimate stolen base threat (unless McCann, the current team leader in stolen bases, keeps up his current, torrid pace . . . . . . . . that was a joke, guys). What impresses me most, however, is his defense. He's fast, but speed isn't everything when it comes to playing center field. He gets excellent jumps on balls, reads the ball well off the bat, and has absolutely no fear running down balls in the outfield. His defense won the game for the Braves yesterday against the Nats when he made two excellent catches that won't make ESPN's top 10 simply because he made them look to easy. The first was a great read on a sinking liner off the bat of one of the Nats (i forget who) with the go ahead run on second base and two outs that ended the inning. The ball was either knuckling or had some really strange spin and, when it was first hit, I thought for sure it would be a single. Instead, Schafer came out of no where, tracked the ball into his glove, and made the catch without even diving. The second catch was even more impressive. Soriano gave up a blast to center field in the 9th that looked like it might have a chance to get out of the park and certainly looked to be over Schafer's head. Instead, Schafer tracked the ball down while keeping track of where the wall was to make an extremely difficult catch look smooth and effortless. A key cog to the Braves' success in the 90's and the earlier portions of this decade was the stellar play of our centerfielders, defensively. Nixon, Grissom, Jones, and even brief cameos from Roberto Kelly and Lofton provided Braves pitchers with excellent cover in the outfield. This has been lacking recently as Andruw Jones' mobility decreased as he gained weight and then last year, when CF was a mess and four different people got a chance to make a go of it due to injurie, trades and poor performance. Last year, Kotsay would most likely not have gotten to either one of those balls and the Braves would have lost that game. I think that Schafer's defense alone will add at least three or four more W's to the win column for the Braves this year. As long as Schafer performs decently on offense (say hits .260 or higher with 10-15 homers and maybe a few stolen bases sprinkled in) his defense will be worth it's weight in gold. That would be great, but I wouldn't be too surprised if Schafer ended up with the ROY award.

The 3,000

Respect is due.

3,000 K's baby!

We Want a Pitcher, Not a Belly Itcher

If there is one thing that has been difficult to get used to for all Braves fans, it's been the lack of quality starting pitching in Atlanta over the past few seasons. Some of the problems have been due to bad luck (Hampton's seemingly endless string of injuries). Some have been due to disappointing prospects (Kyle Davies). But most have been due to Atlanta's relatively frugal ownership. The Braves, to this day, have one of the healthiest farm systems in all of baseball . . . even after trading away four supposedly surefire prospects for Mark Teixeira. There once was a time when that healthy farm system would have made the Braves a frontrunner in the Johan Santana sweepstakes. A Braves package that included two top pitching prospects plus some other solid position players (perhaps Lillibridge and Brandon Jones?) plus perhaps a little more filler would have looked much better than anything the Twins were offered by the Mets, Yankees, or Red Sox. Such a trade would have given the Braves a rotation of Smoltz, Hudson, Hampton, Glavine, and Santana -- which would be quite the formidable group and about as close as the Braves could come to the Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux group of the '90's. But alas, the Ted Turner ownership days are long gone and the Braves have to fill the rotation using entirely different methods . . .

Read more...
The Braves offense has a lot of potential coupled with a lot of risk. The pitching staff is even more extreme. The Braves have a huge disparity in age between the veteran starters and the young guns. Smoltz is still one of the best pitchers in the game and, as one of the greatest post season starters of all time, could lead the way to playoff success. Glavine is no longer a frontline starter, but he and Smoltz have both been in the top five for quality starts the past two years. Tim Hudson is not a star, but is a solid #2 and as long as he keeps his sinker low, is one of the best groundball pitchers in the game. Hampton, before his series of injuries, was extremely effective with the Braves and could be one of the best #4 starters in baseball. The thing is, all these guys are getting up there in age. The time to win with this group is now. While Hudson still likely has a number of quality years remaining, Smoltz and Glavine are both over 40. For Hampton, this is a make or break year. It's the last year of his megacontract that he signed with Colorado seven years ago. If he pitches poorly or is injured again, his career could be finished. The time is now for this group of starters.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Braves have a crop of youngsters that have the potential to be really, really good. JoJo Reyes and Jair Jurrjens certainly have the stuff to succeed as frontliners in the big leagues. A second tier of prospects, including Chris Resop and Jeff Bennett among others, could also provide quality depth at the 4 and 5 spots. The question is, are these guys ready for the show right now?

The fact is, it is entirely unrealistic to think that the four veterans will all stay healthy for the whole season. Simultaneously, it is unrealistic to think that Reyes and Jurrjens will become the Cy Young candidates some scouts believe they can become soon enough to offset the loss of Smoltz, Glavine, or Hampton to injury. And that is why the success of the Braves in '08 may fall on the sore left shoulder of Chuck James.

Chuck James followed up a successful rookie campaign with a disappointing sophomore effort. His struggles in '07 were largely due to his inability to keep the ball in the park as he gave up 32 HR's in only 160 innings. This number combined with a .316 average against leadoff batters meant that James allowed far too many HR's with runners on. While Chuck James does not have killer stuff like Jurrjens or Reyes, he does possess a fastball with decent movement coupled with a plus changeup that he can use to dominate as long as he manages to locate it correctly. James and Tom Glavine have a lot in common in that neither has an overpowering fastball or a back-breaking slider. However, they both can throw extremely effective changeups. When Chuck James can paint the corners at knee level with his change and his fastball, he is extremely effective. When he leaves either pitch over the plate or belt high, they resemble batting practice lollipops that even low-order hitters can turn into 420 foot shots. What's worse is that James has a greater tendency to throw such pitches after he has walked a batter by missing outside with his fastball and/or change. James will never be a star. However, he does have the ability to post a sub 4.00 ERA if he is able to gain better command of his pitches. If he is able to work the corners with his fastball and changeup and avoid walking too many batters, he will keep his pitch counts lower, allowing him to go deeper into games and reducing his tax on the bullpen. Simply keeping the ball in the lower half of the strike zone should prevent a few more balls from leaving the park. James stands as a safeguard that can reduce the risks associated with having a simultaneously old and young staff. Strong outings from James will take pressure off of vets like Smoltz or Hampton who may need an occasional day off to stay strong. Similarly, a strong year for James will allow Jurrjens and Reyes to make spot starts in place of resting vets from time to time without requiring them to assume the pressure of being full time members of the rotation, thus easing them into the big leagues. A healthy and effective Hampton would be wonderful. Early success from Jurrjens and Reyes would be fantastic. But a resurgent year from James may be the key on both ends of the spectrum.

James played through a torn rotator cuff last season that has now healed. He is currently locked in a battle with Jurrjens and Reyes for the rotations fifth spot. However, I would be surprised if Bobby Cox doesn't have him on the 25 man roster. If the Braves are to succeed this season, Chuck James must rise to the occasion.

I Love the Smell of Baseball in the Morning

That's right folks. Between all the wonderful soccer (yeah Spurs!), talk of college basketball and March Madness, an exciting NBA regular season (as unbelievable as that sounds), and the NFL draft (which takes up way too much room on the ESPN headlines than it should), it's easy to forget that Spring Training is running at full force now in Arizona and Florida. Here's a quick look at how the Braves lineup will probably shake down.

Read more...

The Braves' starting lineup for opening day projects to look something like this.

2B Kelly Johnson
SS Yunel Escobar
3B Chipper Jones
1B Mark Teixeira
RF Jeff Francoeur
C Brian McCann
CF Mark Kotsay
LF Matt Diaz (possibly in platoon with rookie Brandon Jones)


From an offensive standpoint, the 3-7 spots are extremely intimidating to opposing teams. The switch-hitting power combo of Chipper and Tex is right up there with the best heart-of-the-order tandems in baseball. Francoeur is now entering his third full season in the bigs and, if he can combine his power numbers of '06 with the average of '07 and continue to improve on his BB/K ratio, could look to make the transition from local star to national star. Brian McCann battled an unfortunate hand injury that hurt his average through the middle of the season. However, if he can remain healthy, he is one of the very best offensive catchers in baseball and should hit close to .300 with 20 HR's and 90+ RBIs. Two switch hitters followed by a righty-lefty combo in Francoeur and McCann will make late game situations difficult for opposing managers. If Chipper can play 140 games, this group could easily go for 400+ RBIS, 90-100 HR's and a composite BA right around .300.

However, outside of this core, there are a lot of lingering questions. There is a lot of pressure on Escobar to live up to his stellar rookie campaign. Bobby Cox may consider batting Escobar later in the order against right-handed starters to ease some of the pressure on the young Cuban. Mark Kotsay will not be able to replicate the power numbers of Andruw Jones, but he will also be under pressure to hit upward of .260 and get on base consistently. It will also be interesting to see if Matt Diaz, who has been one of the best hitters for average in all of baseball over the past few years, continues to succeed as he enters his third season with the Braves. If Kotsay, Escobar, or Johnson struggle in the one or two holes, Diaz could fill their spot. However, Kelly Johnson may actually be the most important key to success for the Atlanta offense. In 2005, Johnson was heralded as the Braves top offensive prospect, ahead of Francoeur and McCann. However, an 0-30 start to his big league career followed by a lost season in 2006 recovering from Tommy John surgery have caused him to fall of the radar. Yet Johnson is only 25 years old and is coming off his first full season in which he posted an OPS in excess of .800, which is excellent for a second baseman. A late slump hurt his average but that is common for young players. Now that he has gotten comfortable with his new position at 2B and has a year and a half of experience, look for Kelly Johnson as a sleeper to emerge as one of Atlanta's best offensive weapons. He has enough speed to be effective in the leadoff spot. He has the eye to bat second. And he has enough power to bring some pop to the back of the lineup. A season hitting .280 with 15 HR and 60 RBIs should be no problem, but I would not be surprised if he were able to push his average closer to .300 and hit 20 HR. If he hits in the 1 or 2 spots all season, I look for him to pass 100 R. The Braves have not had a 2B who has had numbers like that since the All-Star seasons of Marcus Giles four and five years ago. Such a performance from Johnson this season would ease some of the pressure on Escobar and Kotsay as well as give Tex and Chipper more RBI opportunities. Excluding the Phillies Chase Utley, 2B is a weakness for NL East teams. Johnson has a chance to become one of the better offensive 2B in the NL and give the Braves a weapon as second base that they have lacked for a few years.

While Atlanta is excited about Jordan Schafer, the power-hitting, base-stealing 21 year-old heir apparent to the CF job in 2009, there is another youngster who may have a bigger role to play this year. AAA Richmond shortstop and stud prospect Brent Lillibridge came over from the Pirates last year when the Braves sent LaRoche to Pittsburgh and, if not for the emergence of the slightly older Escobar, would probably be penciled in as the Braves SS of the future. He can hit for average, has great gap power with occasional HR distance, and has great speed on the bases. In addition, he is a wizard with the glove. He lacks the arm strength of Escobar but still has plenty of strength to make all the throws. He also has the ability to play the outfield, as well. Although Omar Infante will start the season as the Braves utility player (provided he recovers from the broken hand he suffered in winter ball), I personally would like to see where Lillibridge will fit in. Though he's inexperienced, he's well seasoned having been drafted after his junior year of college and spending last year in AAA Richmond. His ability to play 2B, SS, 3B and the outfield make him a wonderful asset and his speed fills the stolen bases void that opened after Furcal left for Dodgertown a few years back. He is great insurance if Escobar or Johnson sruggles or goes down with injury. Many scouts regard Lillibridge as a better overall prospect than Escobar. It will be interesting to see how Bobby Cox envisions Lillibridge's role with the Braves. He will probably start the year in Richmond so that he can continue to play everyday, but don't be surprised if Lillibridge becomes an important component of the Braves lineup come July and/or August.

I'll give a rundown of the Braves starting pitchers in a couple days. Until next time . . .