Wednesday, June 10, 2009

State of the Braves

Well, we're getting closer to the halfway point in the season, so it's time to take a look at where the Braves stand. Before the season started, I made a list of questions that the Braves needed to answer in order to be successful. Not surprisingly, it seems like about half of those questions have been answered for the better and the other half . . . well, not so good.

Read more...

First, the good news. The starting pitching staff has come together and is arguably the best in the NL East. Actually, I think it is definitely the best in the NL East, especially now that Kawakami has settled down. The numbers are a little skewed due to the 3 starts awarded to Jo-Jo Reyes, who's value as a prospect has plummeted, but now that Tommy Hanson (who is projected to become a number one starter) is filling the 5th spot in the rotation, the Braves can trot out a rotation whose 5th option may have the most talent of all. Javy Vazquez has enjoyed his return to the NL and is pitching to his talent level. Lowe has been a rock. Jurrjens has taken his pitching to the next level. Kawakami started slow, but has a sub 3.50 ERA over his last 7 starts. And even though Hanson's debut didn't go as planned, he showed during the first three perfect innings exactly what he is capable of. The starters have been good and, as Hanson adjusts to the majors, they have more upside than any starting staff the Braves have assembled in a long, long time.

Now the bad. The offense . . . and by the offense I mean Francoeur. McCann has been his usual self after he got that vision thing cleared up. Chipper has come alive, even if he misses a few games here and there. Escobar has been solid. Kelly Johnson hasn't improved like I had hoped, but the Braves were never counting on him. Francoeur, however, hasn't provided any power and his deplorable slugging and on-base percentages are making an offense that was already lacking for power truly horrible. The McClouth trade is a step in the right direction as it gives the Braves a true leadoff hitter, a true stolen base threat, and allows Johnson to hit lower in the order where he's more comfortable (more about this trade later). However, unless Garrett Anderson suddenly sheds five years, the Braves have far too little power to afford to have an automatic out machine like Francoeur in the lineup. The Braves' brass has given Francoeur plenty of time to show he can adjust. It's clear now that he will never be the player the Braves (and everyone else, for that matter) thought he would be. It's time to trade him while he still has a shred of value and look for other ways to fill the void in outfield production.

As for the McClouth trade, it was a masterstroke by Frank Wren. Yes, a masterstroke. The only prospect with any real potential that the Braves gave up was Gorkys Hernandez, a super-speedster who has the potential to hit for average and steel bases. Charlie Morton and Locke are fifth/fourth starters at best. The Braves already have guys who can fill those roles if need be in Jeff Bennett, Jorge Campillo (when he comes off the DL) and now, rookie and future number 3 starter Kris Medlen. Hernandez might be good one day, but his absolute ceiling would be a Jose Reyes type player with less power. Yeah, that'd be great, but it's unlikely he ever becomes that good and I'd rather take a proven commidity like McClouth who hits for a little power, is an excellent base stealer and will be under contract for a reasonable amount for four full years. Now Schafer can take his time to develop. When he comes up, he or McClouth can move to one of the corner outfield slots, giving the Braves extremely good defense in the outfield, and the Braves will have two speedsters with power potential. If you recall, Hernandez came over with Jurrjens from the Tigers in the Edgar Renteria trade. That means that Wren has turned Edgar Renteria, a SS who is quickly fading, into a potential All-Star pitcher in Jurrjens and an All-Star centerfielder in McClouth who both will be with the Braves for relatively cheap for at least the next three years. Oh yeah, and it allowed Escobar, who is in so many ways a Renteria clone, at least at the plate, to blossom. So yeah, I'd say the Renteria deal has been a resounding success for the Braves so far.