Monday, April 13, 2009

Great Start for Los Bravos

It's been a great start to the season for the Braves, so far. Does quantity equal quality in terms of the starting pitching? The answer so far has been a resounding yes as Braves' starters lead the majors in ERA through the first week. Obviously, the staff won't sustain this level of success for the whole season, but at the very least it looks like Jurrjens, Lowe, Vasquez and Kawakami are all capable of eating up some innings and notching many quality starts along the way. Can the offense generate enough runs? So far, so good. Kelly Johnson has been on fire, Escobar has been on fire, Chipper's always on fire, McCann is playing like he wants to win an MVP, the bottom of the order is producing (Jordan Schafer, welcome to the bigs!). The two remaining question marks right now are the bullpen, which seems to be in limbo, and Frenchy. Read on after the jump . . .

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What to make of the bullpen?

The bullpen has either been brilliant or horrible, depending on which game you look at. The Braves should easily be 6-0 right now if it weren't for an epic 7th inning bullpen meltdown in which the pen allowed 7 runs in one inning to the Phillies (four runs the restult of bases-loaded walks or hit-batsmen), to open the door for a miraculous comback. On the other hand, the bullpen has looked great in other stretches (such as the game prior to the 7th inning meltdown when the pen combined for 4 scoreless innings). In my mind, the pen is simply in limbo. Two years ago, Soriano, with the exception of a horrible three week stretch when he couldn't keep the ball in the park, clearly emerged as the Braves closer of the near future by shutting down opposing offenses first as the setup man to Bob Wickman and then as the closer after Wickman was traded. He started '08 as the Braves' 9th inning man but spent almost the entire year on the DL with a series of odd ailments. During this time, Gonzo came back from tommy john surgery and took the closing job by default with mixed results. Some nights he was awesome, some nights he couldn't get anyone out. However, with Soriano's continued arm issues, Gonzo has started '09 as the closer. However, i'm not so sure that Soriano shouldn't be the man with the ball in his hands in the 9th inning when he's healthy. He's got the most talent between the two, especially since Gonzo has lost so much velocity post-surgery. He looked stellar in the Sunday's sweep of the Nationals by notching a perfect ninth. Until the closer's role is locked down by either Soriano or Gonzo, the pen will have a difficult time adjusting to new roles. It's also important that the Braves determine if Moylan needs more rehab. He was absolutely unhittably in 2007, but lost 2008 due to surgery. If he can come back strong, the Braves will really be able to shorten games. However, his first three outings this year have mostly been disasters. It's imperative that Moylan rediscover his old form if the pen is to be a strength this season.

As for Frenchy, I still don't know what to make of the former golden boy. In spring training he waled more than he struck out and hit .367 with a new batting stance and plate approach. Pretty awesome for a dude who got a standing ovation the first time he walked in a major league game . . . over 100 at bats after his first major league appearance. The problem is, the season started and it's same old Frenchy. Only one walk this season, so far. His average is hovering around .220 or so. On the other hand, he's taken the ball to the opposite field on a number of occasions, most notably yesterday when he got a triple by taking a hanging breaking ball on the outside half down the right field line. Old Frenchy would have tried to pull it and hit a lazy pop off the end of the bat. This was clearly a step in the right direction. He also has produced in the clutch much better than he did last season, making his few hits very productive hits. Hopefully the average will creep up as long as he continues to stick to his commitment of hitting to all fields. Johnson, Escobar, Chipper, and McCann are going to be on base a lot in front of Francoeur and the Braves absolutely need him to drive them in. Hopefully yesterday's two triple performance is a sign of things to come.

The biggest story so far, however, has been the emergence of Jordan Schafer. Obviously his offense has been very good, especially for a hitter in the 8th spot. I think Schafer will start the '10 season as the leadoff hitter, but I like that he is hitting 8th right now. No reason to rush the kid. However, if he keeps slugging the way he has, Bobby Cox may have no choice but to move him up, especially since he is the Braves' only legitimate stolen base threat (unless McCann, the current team leader in stolen bases, keeps up his current, torrid pace . . . . . . . . that was a joke, guys). What impresses me most, however, is his defense. He's fast, but speed isn't everything when it comes to playing center field. He gets excellent jumps on balls, reads the ball well off the bat, and has absolutely no fear running down balls in the outfield. His defense won the game for the Braves yesterday against the Nats when he made two excellent catches that won't make ESPN's top 10 simply because he made them look to easy. The first was a great read on a sinking liner off the bat of one of the Nats (i forget who) with the go ahead run on second base and two outs that ended the inning. The ball was either knuckling or had some really strange spin and, when it was first hit, I thought for sure it would be a single. Instead, Schafer came out of no where, tracked the ball into his glove, and made the catch without even diving. The second catch was even more impressive. Soriano gave up a blast to center field in the 9th that looked like it might have a chance to get out of the park and certainly looked to be over Schafer's head. Instead, Schafer tracked the ball down while keeping track of where the wall was to make an extremely difficult catch look smooth and effortless. A key cog to the Braves' success in the 90's and the earlier portions of this decade was the stellar play of our centerfielders, defensively. Nixon, Grissom, Jones, and even brief cameos from Roberto Kelly and Lofton provided Braves pitchers with excellent cover in the outfield. This has been lacking recently as Andruw Jones' mobility decreased as he gained weight and then last year, when CF was a mess and four different people got a chance to make a go of it due to injurie, trades and poor performance. Last year, Kotsay would most likely not have gotten to either one of those balls and the Braves would have lost that game. I think that Schafer's defense alone will add at least three or four more W's to the win column for the Braves this year. As long as Schafer performs decently on offense (say hits .260 or higher with 10-15 homers and maybe a few stolen bases sprinkled in) his defense will be worth it's weight in gold. That would be great, but I wouldn't be too surprised if Schafer ended up with the ROY award.